2025 Technology Outlook: Navigating the Intersection of Geopolitics and Digital Infrastructure

Our Xona Partners team collaborated to write this Insight Note following Mobile World Congress 2025 to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the current state of the telecom industry. In this paper, we analyze critical trends—such as the rise of AI-driven network intelligence and the convergence of non-terrestrial networks (NTN) with mobile connectivity. We also look into the evolving interplay of geopolitics and digital infrastructure, highlighting how trade disputes and tech diplomacy are shaping market strategies.

You can download the full paper here to explore our in-depth analysis and actionable insights.

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Examining the Expansion of Private Wireless Networks

This brief post aims to share a couple of data points on enterprise private wireless networks (PWN). The first is from Nokia, which reported 820 PWN customers in its 2024 earnings report. Nokia has been reporting the number of PWN clients since 2019, showing a trend of steady growth.

Nokia Private Wireless Networks Customers.
Nokia Private Wireless Network Customers. The breakdown between 4G and 5G is not available for 2024. [Source: Nokia]

The second data point is from BNetzA, the German telecom regulator. Germany allocated the 3.7–3.8 GHz band for enterprise PWNs in November 2019 and followed shortly after with the 26 GHz band (24.25-27.5 GHz). The most recent data shows that the regulator granted 449 licenses in the 3.7 GHz band and 24 in the 26 GHz band, totalling 474 PWNs, including one pending application for the 3.7 GHz band. BNetzA does not publish the scale of the networks but does provide the names of a little under half of the spectrum license holders.

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The Disruptive Nature of Starlink

I wanted to share a few thoughts as Starlink approaches 5 million subscribers—a milestone achieved in just over 4 years since launching its beta service in November 2020. This growth is particularly impressive when compared to the performance of traditional satellite service providers.

Destruction in the GEO broadband market

A significant portion of Starlink’s growth appears to have come at the expense of competing GEO satellite services. For instance, both Viasat and Hughes have experienced notable declines in their subscriber bases during the same period. Specifically, Viasat’s subscriber count dropped from 596,000 at the end of December 2020—just as Starlink launched—to 205,000 by the end of December 2024. This represents a loss of nearly two-thirds of its subscribers in just over four years.

Hughes has also seen a significant decline, though the impact appears less stark because it reports global subscriber numbers. At the end of December 2020, Hughes had 1,564,000 subscribers. By September 2024, this number had dropped to 912,000 broadband subscribers—a decline of 42%, or roughly 2 out of every 5 subscribers.

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The Evolving Landscape of Subsea Fiber Cables: Geopolitics, Resiliency, and AI

Rising geopolitical tensions and recent suspected sabotage events have put the resiliency of subsea fiber optic cables under renewed scrutiny. The heightened interest in subsea cable resiliency has led leading regulatory bodies, international organizations, and governments to propose initiatives and measures to enhance the security and resiliency of subsea cables. In our recent Insight Note, we deep-dive into the resiliency question and the context of subsea fiber cable investment trends.

For additional perspective, download our Insight Note: Fortifying Global Connectivity: Enhancing Resiliency and Strategic Investments in Subsea Fiber Cable Networks

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mmWave Spectrum: Practical Use or Strategic Necessity?

During 2019 and 2020, Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile acquired 73% of the millimeter wave (mmWave) licenses offered in three FCC auctions. Their combined gross bids of $9 billion accounted for 88% of the total. Just a few years earlier, these incumbent operators had begun building their mmWave portfolios through acquisitions in the secondary market. That period marked the peak of optimism for mmWave, hailed as a breakthrough solution to mobile communications’ capacity challenges. Today, the outlook has shifted significantly according to this article by LightReading. Recently, T-Mobile surrendered 520 licenses in the 28 GHz band after failing to meet FCC deployment deadlines, while US Cellular wrote off $136 million of its approximately $300 million mmWave license value. These developments signal a return to the norm for the mmWave spectrum market.

Band (Auction)Gross Payments (million)Licenses Won
28 GHz (101)$702.6 2,965
24 GHz (102)$2,024 2,904
37/39/47 GHz (103)$7,570 14,142
Total$10,29720,011
Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile (Gross bids)$9,074 14,708
% of Total88%73%

For additional perspective, download our Insight Note: Unfulfilled Promise: Reassessing mmWave Spectrum Valuations and Shifting Use Cases

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Unpacking the PFD Debate: What It Means for SpaceX and the Direct-to-Device Satellite Industry

The direct-to-device (D2D) satellite communication market is emerging as a highly competitive field, exemplified by the ongoing debates around out-of-band (OOB) power flux density (PFD) regulations. Satellite operators using terrestrial mobile spectrum as a secondary application must adhere to strict PFD limits, which impacts the performance capabilities of D2D services, with significant commercial implications for market players.

The SpaceX predicament

A prominent example is SpaceX, which has deployed over 240 D2D satellites and plans to launch commercial services in partnership with T-Mobile. These services will initially include text messaging and emergency alerts, with plans to expand to voice and data as the constellation grows. However, SpaceX’s D2D constellation does not meet the -120 dBW/m2/MHz PFD limit required under the FCC’s SCS framework. To comply with this limit, SpaceX would need to reduce its transmit power by approximately half (3.1 dB), potentially limiting the capacity and coverage of its D2D services—particularly for high-SNR services like voice and data. To address this, SpaceX has requested a waiver to operate with a modified OOB PFD limit of -110.6 dBW/m2/MHz.

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Understanding the Risks in Direct-to-Device Satellite Communications: Insights from SpaceX and Globalstar

Direct-to-device (D2D) satellite communications present significant challenges, both financial and technological, that are closely interconnected. Addressing one set of challenges often increases the risk in the other. Different D2D constellations have adopted various strategies to balance commercial and technological risks. In our latest Insight Note, which you can download below, we highlight some of the key technological risks and examine how two leading satellite constellations are currently working to mitigate them.

Download our latest Insight Note: Understanding the Risks in Direct-to-Device Satellite Communications: Insights from SpaceX and Globalstar

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Canada’s MVNO Policy: Impacts on Market Dynamics

The Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC) has introduced in 2021 a regulatory framework for Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) in Canada, ostensibly aimed at fostering competition. However, while these regulations appear to address some issues, they also introduce significant challenges that may undermine their effectiveness and limit the potential benefits for consumers.

Download our latest Insight Note on this topic: MVNO Access in Canada: Key Insights and Market Implications

Historically, Canada’s regulatory environment has been unfavorable to MVNOs. Full MVNOs were unable to obtain Mobile Network Codes (MNCs), and there was no mandate for incumbent operators like Bell, Telus, and Rogers to provide MVNO services. Furthermore, the policy restricted the technology to 2G networks, even though 4G/LTE was already widespread globally.

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Telecom Network Resiliency: Strategies and Lessons from Major Outages

During a period of two years, three catastrophic telecommunications network outages drew the ire of customers and scrutiny of regulators who initiated probes to understand the incidents and prevent future occurrences. The outages at Rogers (Canada), Optus (Australia), and AT&T (US) underscored the critical dependency of modern economies on telecommunications networks. Network outages impact more than just calling, texting, or browsing; they disrupt life-saving emergency services, financial transactions, and connected devices in various sectors. This Insight Note outlines regulatory recommendations and emphasizes the importance of auditing internal processes and conducting thorough pre-investment technical due diligence for telecom investments to ensure network resiliency and reliability.

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Unlocking NTN Potential: The Strategic Use of Ka and Ku Bands

The satellite industry has adopted two primary approaches to connecting smartphones to satellites using 5G. The first approach utilizes MSS (Mobile Satellite Service) spectrum, as seen with the Globalstar-Apple collaboration. The second approach employs low-band terrestrial spectrum, such as the PCS band, which is being implemented by SpaceX and planned by startups like Lynk Global and AST Spacemobile.

In an earlier post, I expressed my view that the second approach might face challenges due to regulatory and implementation issues that could result in complex systems with limited performance in terms of capacity and throughput. I argued that higher frequency bands in the spectrum could be more suitable for improving cost and performance. This perspective is now gaining traction, especially among traditional satellite companies that are preparing for Non-Terrestrial Network (NTN) services within the 3GPP framework.

Consequently, the number of high-bands, including millimeter wave bands, designated by 3GPP for NTN is increasing, with the most recent development being the approval of the workplan to support the Ku band at the 3GPP meeting in Shanghai last June [Link]. Overall, while the current industry and regulatory focus remains on using MSS and terrestrial spectrum for NTN, the approach to leveraging satellite frequencies in the Ka and Ku bands for 5G/6G services is gradually advancing.

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Mobile Infrastructure Capex: Permanent Weakening or Short-Term Decline?

Mobile infrastructure capex has declined significantly since the second quarter of 2023, following a wave of spending on 5G, with no recovery yet in sight (see here and here). While the mobile industry has faced such declines in the past, signs suggest that the current weakness could be longer and deeper than previous downturns. The top five reasons that could turn the current spending cycle into a long-term bear market for mobile infrastructure are:

  1. Declining Mobile Traffic Growth: Reduced growth in mobile traffic eases the pressure for network upgrades.
  2. Network Disaggregation: Operators can selectively upgrade parts of the network, extending the lifecycle of existing equipment.
  3. Completed Investments in Physical Infrastructure: Major investments in physical infrastructure are largely completed, leaving spending focused on incremental expansion.
  4. Delayed 6G Deployments: 6G is not expected to become commercial with meaningful deployments for at least six more years.
  5. Financial Pressures: Many operators face financial constraints that preclude large capex spending.

Download the Insight Note here:

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CBRS 2.0: The Impact of New Rules on Boosting Deployments with Unencumbered Spectrum Access

The wireless industry celebrated the FCC’s decision to relax certain restrictions within the CBRS band. This milestone, informally dubbed “CBRS 2.0,” promises to increase the availability of channels over a larger footprint along coastal lines and Federal facilities, and reduce restriction times. The industry views this as a significant advancement. However, how much of an impact this will actually have on the utilization of CBRS?

The new rules: what changed

The FCC modified the interference model parameters that SAS operators use to calculate interference between CBRS base stations and federal users, particularly radar systems. This change will expand the unencumbered area for CBRS along coastal lines and around federal radar facilities, reducing the size of Dynamic Protection Areas (DPAs). According to the NTIA, the new rules will affect approximately 72 million people in 17 states, increasing the total unencumbered CBRS area to cover roughly 240 million people nationwide. This change promises more frequency channels to become available to CBRS users. The table below highlights the population increase from the largest urban areas.

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5G Positioning Unleashed: Pioneering New Services

5G positioning and location technologies are the culmination of nearly three decades of advancements in mobile positioning technologies [see here for a very informative description]. What began as regulatory requirement for emergency services has expanded into requirements for positioning services in a host of industry verticals and use cases. To meet these new demands, 5G enhances positioning services through improved signalling schemes, robust solution architecture, and the implementation of diverse positioning techniques. As a result, for the first time ever, a mobile technology could become a competitive commercial positioning system, opening up new opportunities for mobile network operators to offer innovative services.

For additional information, download our Insight Note Navigating Precision: Evolving Trends in Positioning, Location and Timing Technologies

Comparative assessment

Positioning technologies each come with their own strengths and weaknesses. Key metrics include service availability, location accuracy, and confidence interval. Increasingly, the latency in determining the location has become crucial, especially for industrial applications. This need for reduced latency is a notable shift that 5G positioning technologies aim to address.

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The Spectrum Funnel: Exploring Future Mobile Frequency Bands

In recent years, regulators globally have released a significant amount of new spectrum for wireless services, primarily in the mid-bands between 3.3 and 4 GHz [See here and here]. This wave of allocations has largely subsided as most countries have now assigned the majority of the cleared spectrum. We are currently at a point where new spectrum blocks may not be available for some time. This period allows for an assessment of existing spectrum inventories and evolving needs. With global organizations and national regulators involved in spectrum planning, we can gain insights into future mobile frequency bands.

The US has allocated 1123 MHz for mobile broadband in sub 6 GHz bands.
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A Note on USCellular Spectrum Post the T-Mobile Acquisition

T-Mobile will acquire the wireless assets of USCellular including about 4.5 million subscribers and about 30% of the spectrum assets as the figure below shows [see here]. The value of the transaction is $4.4 billion. USCellular will retain ~70% of its spectrum, which it says it plans to monetize immediately. USCellular will also keep its towers to become the 5th largest tower company in the US (by number of towers).

USCellular spectrum portfolio. [Source: USCellular]

The estimated book value of the spectrum that T-Mobile is acquiring is about $1.4 billion. This is based on prices USCellular paid at auctions. It does not include any secondary transactions involving all bands, but particularly the PCS band.

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