The FCC concluded Auction 102 netting over $2 billion for over 2,900 licenses in the 24/25 GHz band. A good milestone, but more critical is the availability of 3.5 GHz spectrum which has better performance tradeoffs than millimeter wave spectrum. With all the talk about the ‘5G race’, availability of mid-band spectrum makes the most difference on who will benefit from 5G. The US continues to lag in mid-band availability awaiting the maturity of the CBRS band. In the meantime, global C-band valuation is skyrocketing.
Our analysis of C-band (3.x GHz) spectrum auctions over the course of this decade shows that valuation increased by an average of 5x post 2015. This is as C-Band became the worldwide consensus band for 5G networks.
The C-band has inferior coverage and building penetration than the sub 1 GHz bands that have set valuation records in previous auctions. However, it offers much wider bandwidth and can sustain more capacity than the lower frequency bands. On similar comparative basis, the C-band will provide 40-50% more capacity than the 700 MHz and 800 MHz bands. This is why in Korea they rolled out 5G in the C-band.
If 5G is a race (it’s not!), then countries are advised to release mid-band spectrum sooner rather than later. [See here for our prior post on C-band spectrum.]
But obviously, waiting has its benefits as prices will go up and regulators stand to make more money!