The satellite and mobile industries have long played in their own field, rarely intersecting despite being complementary. The disconnect between the two camps is surprisingly large. Neither side paying much attention to developments on the other side. Their relationship even turned adversarial where spectrum rights were at stake. Both industries are now trying to work together by defining complementary services. However, beneath these attempts remains long-standing misconceptions. We recently undertook a study exploring the prospects of mobile-satellite intersect. This is the first of two articles to provide context. [See here for the second article.]
The Value Exchange Model
Mobile network operators and satellite service providers strive to create stakeholder value while operating in different market conditions. For any partnership to succeed, both camps need to satisfy the requirements of the other side for value creation. This critical point has traditionally been missing for different reasons. Both camps are inward looking where each party fails to see the needs of the other: the mobile-satellite intersect failed to materialize.
Mobile Network Operators Hot Buttons
The mobile industry generated $1.03 tn in revenue in 2018 [See GSMA The Mobile Economy 2019]. With around 5.1 bn subscribers, anyone who can or wants to have a phone on earth already does. Growth rate is close to organic levels expected of mature industries. The key challenge for MNOs is growing ARPU in a saturated market. Growth in the mobile industry is a zero-sum game where subscriber additions by one service provider correspond to loss by another. Competition is intense. This has the MNOs in search for new applications and services to drive customer acquisition and justify higher prices.
Satellite Service Providers Hot Buttons
The aggregate satellite service revenue dropped by 1.7% to $126.5 bn in 2018 of which $94.2 bn is in TV services [Bryce]. The satellite operators are experiencing erosion in TV/broadcast revenue as OTTs such as Netflix provide alternative to TV programming: a major challenge when 75% of revenue comes from this segment! A similar trends is happening in the cable industry. The introduction of high-throughput satellites (HTS) since the mid-2000’s enabled the business case for Internet services which are on the rise. Rural and remote connectivity is one use case. Maritime and aeronautical applications connecting ships and airplanes is driving new growth. Satellite operators are looking to increase revenues from Internet services to overcome losses from TV broadcast.
The Trade[offs!]
Bringing the two industries closer together requires each to offer the other what it needs most. So what does each camp has to offer the other?
Satellites offer coverage ubiquity that allows efficient broadcast and multicast services. Moreover, the satellite industry has channels into the government, defense and enterprise sectors with which mobile network operators are not tightly coupled.
Despite the offered value by satellite operators, MNOs view them as a fringe: a technology of last resort to use when all else fails. The reason: the high cost of satellite capacity and KPIs below that of terrestrial options. For instance, GEO satellite services offer a latency on order of 0.5 seconds, although LEO constellations reduce the latency by 80%.
On the other hand, MNOs offer satellite operators “consumer ubiquity”: the masses of subscribers for mobile services. The challenge is in translating this into a commercial opportunity for the satellite service providers. Historically, this resulted into a minor business opportunity limited to backhaul for a small fraction of cell sites (there are over 7 million cell sites globally of which a very small fraction uses satellite backhaul). Today, the pull that satellite companies are experiencing in ships and aircrafts is a direct result of “consumer ubiquity”: people expect to get service everywhere.
Prospects for Collaboration
The prospects for mobile-satellite intersect hinge on applications that offer an exchange of value prized by both sides. It’s not easy to identify these applications. However, in their absence, the two industries will remain tracking parallel paths. In a following post, I will summarize our analysis of identified applications to identify the potential for the mobile-satellite intersect.