The basic building blocks of 5G were introduced in Release 15 which is now in commercial deployments. In addition, the 5G roadmap has defined two more releases. Release 16 brings in new features in addition to improvements to features introduced in Release 15. Last December, 3GPP identified Release 17 work items. Below, is a summary roadmap in easy to understand terms.
Not all features will be implemented. We have made aggressive assumptions on commercial launch dates. As the case with LTE, service providers will opt to deploy some features from all those available. Vendors will also have to place priorities on what features to develop. This takes on a special significance because 5G also targets enterprise deployments. Vendors who traditionally prioritized their roadmap based on service provider requirements will have more homework to do. Vendors will also be able to differentiate solutions based on what features they implement, leaving some room for smaller players to focus on smaller markets with niche features.
Technology decision cannot be based on roadmap alone. We often come into situations where technology decisions stall a project because of a future technology promise [Note below]. For example, should one deploy LTE-based private networks today, or wait for 5G to mature. Or, should one deploy an LPWA technology such as LoRa or wait for a 5G IoT mode to mature. In making such decisions one needs to consider multiple factors. The roadmap and availability of 5G is just one factor to consider among many. Even when technology becomes available, its price points may not be economical for the intended uses case. For 5G, as for any wireless infrastructure technology, the market depends on high volume to achieve low price points. Some features may never find the client base necessary to bring them to market cost effectively. Therefore, technology decisions need to factor the strength of the ecosystem and its leanings.
Note: At Xona Partners, we defined the cascading technology trap in smart city projects [see here and here]. However, we come across this issue in different contexts, for example, when we work with vendors on roadmap definition and assumption validation, or with investors on due diligence. It is very common challenge especially today where the Internet and social media amplify different views and work to confound the facts.