Is Direct Satellite-to-Device the Largest Opportunity in Satcom’s History?

The direct satellite-to-device (DS2D) market is expected to reach $35 billion by 2030, and counting 400 million average monthly subscriptions driven by 5G technology (according to NSR). This is about $7/month. This highlights a very sensitive business case: constellations cost billions to deploy and operate; they need a refresh every 5-10 years. With much of the world’s unconnected in developing markets where ARPU is $2 or less, controlling constellation costs becomes critical to the success of direct satellite-to-device ventures.

Direct satellite-to-device connectivity was be the topic of our 3rd workshop in the Space Intersects Internet series on November 18, 2021. You can watch the recorded event at this link: https://bit.ly/3q6eyRP. To download a summary transcript, enter your email below:

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Taking the Quantum Leap: How quantum technology is set to transform communication networks

Key Takeaways

  • Quantum computing decimates RSA cryptography which underpins most of our digital platforms: you can’t have a happy quantum computing world without first protecting all of the critical infrastructures against quantum-enabled attacks.
  • The quantum threat development is not gradual and can come suddenly to break everything. This can come fast to threaten our networks and the Internet.
  • Our digital infrastructure is not ready for quantum-enabled attacks. Service providers, data center operators and others need to protect their networks for from such attacks. The planning cycle is long, so service providers need to start planning back from the date they are required to implement quantum technologies, for instance 2031 in the case of Germany.
  • The planning cycle to incorporate quantum cryptography is long and has several challenges, such as availability of standard, interoperability and validation; in addition to a complex supply chain.
  • NIST, ETSI and other organizations are in process of developing new algorithms and standards which are coming out imminently: NIST will announce the finalists in a few months, and the final standard will be out in 2024.
  • North America, Europe and China are heavily investing in quantum cryptography and post-quantum cryptography.
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How Telcos Outsourced Their Brains!

edge computing: telco vs. cloud players

The decision by AT&T to host its network cloud, including the core network, on Microsoft Azure Cloud is the single most important milestone in the telecom industry over the past few years. It’s an experiment and a leap of faith that is set to have major ripples on the market. The core network is the essence of 5G that will differentiate among mobile network operators. Cloud providers are intent on playing a key role in the re-architecture of the mobile network to provide edge computing services. In this arrangement, AT&T appears to have ceded its nervous system and outsourced its brains. So, what are the prospects, and could they be so negative?

Background

Microsoft’s Azure Cloud will host AT&T’s network cloud deployment and development starting with the core network functions (see the June 2021 announcement here or here). In this process which is expected to last 3 years, Microsoft is acquiring AT&T’s network cloud technology and the design, development and support engineers who maintain and operate the network. They will become part of Azure for Operators service which Microsoft will offer to other network operators.

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Overview of FCC Auction 110 in 3.45 GHz

FCC Auction 110 for 100 MHz in the 3.45 GHz band is set to start tomorrow (October 5): the third auction for 3 GHz band spectrum in less than two years for a combined 450 MHz. This is a huge amount of spectrum considering previous auctions and holdings. Here, I wanted to share an outline of this auction and what to expect over the coming few weeks.

Auction basics

Some baseline characteristics to consider:

  • 100 MHz in 3.45-3.55 MHz divided into 10 x 10 MHz TDD blocks (designated A-J).
  • 4,060 licenses available in 406 Partial Economic Areas (PEAs) in the contiguous US.
  • 15-year license term similar to the C-band auction. [See here for a complete analysis of the C-band auction.]
  • 40 MHz spectrum cap similar to the CBRS PAL auction. This requirement will hold for the first 4 years post auction.
  • No restrictions on antenna placement or low-power limits. The limit is similar to the C-Band at EiRP 1640 W/MHz in non-rural areas and double that in rural areas. This is unlike the CBRS band which restricted RF output power and antenna placements and limit range. [See here on the power limits in CBRS; and here on CBRS auction outcome.]
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The SIM Factor in Private Wireless Networks

SIM in private wireless networks

Last year, I outlined several challenges facing enterprise private wireless networks (here). In this post, I wanted to highlight the role of dual SIM phones and eSIM technology in enabling private wireless networks. The SIM impacts how subscribers access the private network and, consequently, the quality of experience which makes the SIM a critical part of enterprise networks. The approach to SIM that a private network operator takes has to match the deployment scenario and business objectives.

The mechanics of accessing private networks

There are different ways for a subscriber to access a private network. For instance, a subscriber can roam onto a private network. This requires roaming agreement between the private network operator and mobile network operators. Alternatively, a subscriber could use a phone that supports dual SIM cards. In this case, the subscriber could choose and prioritize over which network to receive voice and data services.

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Why We Need 6G!

Why we need 6G

Two things led me to write this post. First, much of what’s written about 6G focuses on what 6G could be, but little arguing for why we need 6G! Second, 5G offers a very flexible architecture and a rich roadmap which will need many years to fully develop and use. These two reasons makes the question of why we need 6G thought provoking.

A brief backdrop

The primary objective of evolving wireless technologies is improving performance – specifically capacity. This started with voice capacity and evolved with time to add and scale data services. This evolution culminated in 5G with a flexible architecture optimized to meet different use cases and deployment scenarios.

From a connectivity performance perspective, cellular technology has almost reached the theoretical capacity limit set by communication theory. Successive generations improved spectral efficiency to reach close to the Shannon limit. Capacity in the low frequency bands is maxed out. Most of the innovation has shifted to progressively improve efficiency in the high spectrum bands. Architecturally, cellular networks are fully integrated with the Internet where mobile traffic accounts for over 50% of total Internet traffic.

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Can 5G Bridge The Urban-Rural Digital Divide?

Mind The Gap Urban Rural Digital Divide

Since Covid further exposed the rural digital deficit, many have asked to deploy 5G to provide broadband services in rural areas. Many others are skeptical for various reasons. To sort through the issue, We were commissioned to investigate how 5G can bridge the urban-rural digital divide. In our paper (download here), we review some of the technical characteristics of 5G in the context of rural deployments. The paper will help rural service providers, industry associations, regulators and governments develop an understanding of the capabilities and tradeoffs for 5G in rural areas. In my notes here, I mention some aspects that we left out of the white paper, and highlight additional aspects that I believe are important.

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A Gold Medal in Spectrum Auction Valuation: 3500 MHz Canadian Auction

The Canadian auction for an average of 111 MHz in the 3500 MHz band raised a record setting C$8.91 billion (US$7.16 B). That’s an average of C$2.28/MHz-PoP (US$1.83); or a global record high for this spectrum band. Or, to bring another meaning into this, operators paid C$270 for each mobile subscriber! For another perspective, the US C-band auction was the most expensive auction at US$$0.94/MHz PoP after it raised US$80.9 B (unloaded) [see here].

3500 MHz Canadian Auction: Spending by service provider
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Latency in LEO Satellites vs. Terrestrial Fiber

Latency is a key differentiating parameter for new communication networks such as LEO satellite constellations and 5G. The interest in latency has increased as the value proposition for these networks hinges on enabling latency-dependent applications. This got some competing technology options nervous. For instance, LEO satellites provide as much as 20x round trip delay advantage over GEO satellites. On the other hand, LEO satellites provide a more nuanced advantage over terrestrial fiber which depends on distance. We researched this aspect of LEO satellites in collaboration with Angola Cables (see here) to understand the potential market dynamics between the satellite and subsea fiber ecosystems.

Independently, Aizaz Chaudhry at Carleton University was doing a deep technical analysis to quantify the latency advantage of LEO satellites over terrestrial fiber using sophisticated satellite constellation simulator among other tools. Here, I summarize some of the key aspects related to data transport over LEO satellites that Aizaz and I arrived at.

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Dynamics of the Canadian 5G Midband Spectrum Auction

Canadian 5G Midband Spectrum Auction

The market landscape and auction structure make the Canadian 3500 MHz midband spectrum auction an interesting one to watch. The auction will kick off on June 15 to release an average of 111 MHz of which around 50 MHz will be set aside for regional wireless operators. This is relatively small in terms of what 5G requires to deliver the promised Gbps throughput. Supply constraints could suggest high prices. But the background is complex and the outcome will depend on the potential demand.

Supply Throttle

The 3500 MHz midband spectrum auction is a first instalment in a two-phased release of midband spectrum. A chunk of 330 MHz in the C-band (3650 – 3980 MHz) is scheduled for 1Q2023 [see here]. However, as 80 MHz of the C-band spectrum will be assigned on shared basis, it leaves 250 MHz for contention among bidders.

A few countries released midband spectrum in instalments: the UK, Hong Kong and a few countries in Eastern Europe are examples. In these auctions, the number of bidders was limited to primarily the incumbent operators. As such, most of these auctions did not yield much of a premium over the reserve price, except in the UK. There, the first instalment of 150 MHz fetched 81.5% higher price than the second instalment of 120 MHz. In effect, the operators have discovered their financial boundary and play book for 5G, and acted accordingly.

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Visit the Report Download page to download market reports, workshop transcripts and presentations on a range of hot telecom industry topics such as LEO satellites, ORAN/vRAN, edge computing and spectrum valuation.

5G Power Consumption: How mmWave and C-Band Compare

5G power consumption comparison mmWave and C-band

At the conclusion of the C-Band auction, I wrote that deployments of millimeter wave technology would largely stop. Even as Verizon reaffirmed its commitment to deploying mmWave, I believe that these plans would be downscaled in due time. This is because the cost for mmWave would strongly suggest this direction. Over the past week, many had questions on the operating costs of mmWave technology. Here, I will address 5G power consumption and its cost. While power is not the main operating cost, people are paying more attention to it. So, to be clear, I am not rationalizing a conclusion based on the cost of power alone. But it serves to illustrate a point. [See here for our analysis on how mmWave compares with FTTH on cost and performance.]

5G Power Consumption Comparison

The power consumption of C-band sites is higher than that of mmWave. C-band radios implement massive MIMO technology with 32 or 64 transmit and receive elements. Many service providers will opt to deploy the 64Tx variant in the dense urban areas which provides more capacity but at higher power draw. For a 100 MHz carrier, the power draw could be between 450 – 550 W for a single sector.

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Could Wireless Networks Serving Industry 4.0 Applications Succeed without Automation?

Enterprise network automation

A couple of years into 5G roll outs, the main question for operators remains on how to monetize the 5G network investments. Operators understand that enterprise wireless networks are a potential source of revenue. Many of them, from around the world, have engaged in trials testing 5G networks in enterprise settings. The trials have uncovered the complexity and related cost of private networks.  A few operators began exploring network automation solution to facilitate the deployment, operation and maintenance of private networks. One of the reasons for the complexity lies in the diverse nature of enterprise applications. The performance requirements of enterprise applications running on private networks vary considerably from that of mobile broadband over public networks. The resulting friction increases the cost of enterprise networks irrespective of who’s managing them. Solving the “complexity curse” of private networks is a multi-dimensional approach: automation is one fundamental solution.

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