The Prospects for mmWave 5G

mmWave 5G

The prospects of millimeter (mmWave) 5G deployments have peaked the interest of mobile ecosystem players, investors included. While mmWave frequencies offer unmatched capacity, their coverage footprint lead to high network roll out and operating costs*. This raises questions on the financial viability of mmWave 5G. Vendors and suppliers continue to face tough decisions about supporting these frequency bands. To assess the prospects of mmWave 5G deployments, we apply the supply/demand economic framework. The ‘supply’ side consists of three critical factors: Spectrum, application and ecosystem. On the other hand, the pressure to deploy 5G – the need for capacity – represent the ‘demand’ side.

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Cellular IoT Growing Revenue!

Cellular IoT

Mobile network operators don’t breakout cellular IoT service revenue. They keep the numbers confidential and report only the number of connections. China Mobile broke away from this practice becoming one of the very few that publicly reports this number. It announced cellular IoT service revenue of RMB 5.2 billion (USD 736 m) in the first half of 2019. This is under 2% of mobile revenue (personal and corporate). At this rate, China Mobile is around 2x the industry average.

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Mobile-Satellite Intersect Applications

Mobile-satellite intersect

The mobile and satellite industries progressed along parallel path, rarely intersecting. This is because neither side could satisfy the value creation needs of the other side [see here]. However, there is a renaissance in satellite communications brought about by high-throughput satellites and improved launch economics. Entrepreneurs from outside the industry like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos are planning terabit-sized low-earth orbit (LEO) constellations. On the other side, the economic promise of 5G made it central in a trade war between the US and China! Academia is already researching the intersection of satellite and mobile communications under the banner of 6G. So with these developments, what are the opportunities for mobile-satellite intersect in the short and medium terms?

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Value Creation in the Mobile-Satellite Intersect

Mobile-Satellite-Intersect

The satellite and mobile industries have long played in their own field, rarely intersecting despite being complementary. The disconnect between the two camps is surprisingly large. Neither side paying much attention to developments on the other side. Their relationship even turned adversarial where spectrum rights were at stake. Both industries are now trying to work together by defining complementary services. However, beneath these attempts remains long-standing misconceptions. We recently undertook a study exploring the prospects of mobile-satellite intersect. This is the first of two articles to provide context. [See here for the second article.]

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5G Deployment Trends and Prospects

5G trends drivers

Research from Xona Partners on 5G deployment trends and prospects reveals that operators will focus on mid-band spectrum. The millimeter wave technology will remain a niche play in the short and medium terms.

5G is a Mid-Band Play

Operators around the world have spent over $16.2 Billion acquiring 3.5 GHz spectrum (C-band) in the 18 months between January 2018 – June 2019. Deployment in the major Asian markets will center on 3.x GHz where regulators in Korea and China released substantial amounts.

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5G Spectrum Valuation Benchmarks

How much is 5G spectrum worth? Xona Partners published two reports on recent 5G spectrum auction valuation benchmarks. The first is a report on international mid-band spectrum auctions in the 3 – 5 GHz band. The second is a report on millimeter wave spectrum auctions in the 24 – 42 GHz bands. Both reports provide details of the price paid by service providers in 5G spectrum auctions around the world. The reports also provide detailed information on spectrum holdings by mobile network operators. The midband spectrum report includes a section to guide bidders plan their strategy and budget for the Canadian C-Band 5G spectrum auction scheduled for June 2021. Click here for brochures. Contact me for additional details and for CBRS spectrum valuation services.

The LEO Satellites Threat: Impact on Incumbents

LEO satellite Threat

I highlighted in my previous article on LEO satellites the capacity that will come online within the next few years. In 2024, the capacity supply from LEO satellites could be 24x of what GEO satellites offer today. Such a rapid increase in capacity over a short period of 5 years could have great consequences on many telecom incumbents. Here, I highlight the LEO satellites threat to three telecom segments that could face sever consequences.

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LEO Satellites and The Consequences to The Space Race.

LEO Satellites

A new kind of space race is on. If all goes according to plans, a few thousand satellites will be orbiting the earth to provide internet connectivity from space. These are a new generation of high-capacity satellites that will orbit at relatively low altitudes to provide unprecedented performance from space-based networks. These low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites will be circling between 500 and 2,000 km above the earth surface and reduce signal delay by over 5 times from geostationary satellites (sub 100 msec vs. 500 msec). LEO satellites promise to have far-reaching consequences on the established ecosystems.

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The Skyrocketing C-Band Valuation

C-Band Valuation

The FCC concluded Auction 102 netting over $2 billion for over 2,900 licenses in the 24/25 GHz band. A good milestone, but more critical is the availability of 3.5 GHz spectrum which has better performance tradeoffs than millimeter wave spectrum. With all the talk about the ‘5G race’, availability of mid-band spectrum makes the most difference on who will benefit from 5G. The US continues to lag in mid-band availability awaiting the maturity of the CBRS band. In the meantime, global C-band valuation is skyrocketing.

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Five Hot Technologies To Watch!

by Dr. Riad Hartani, Xona Partners

Internet Intersects Space Technologies

The space race is on again! This time the focus is on building a new generation of low earth orbit satellite constellations to deliver broadband internet. A simple equation lies at its heart: Internet to more people around the world; to keep the business model for the cloud/internet players going. Breakthrough in space technologies has led to a drastic reduction in the cost of building, launching and operating satellites. We have been actively working on the latest designs bringing in Internet knowhow into the new generation of satellite technologies.

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A View on Private Networks in Mining and Oil & Gas

A View on Private Networks in Mining and Oil & Gas

Safety. Productivity. Reliability. These are the three axioms that govern the mining and oil & gas industries. I have been researching the potential for private networks in these verticals to determine what role, if any, could LTE and 5G networks play. Looking back over the past 10+ years, private networks held much promise, but showed little success. Will the future be different? 4G/5G private networks have to answer to these axioms for any chance at market traction.

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Wireless Technology Migration: Drivers and Lessons Learned

Technology migration

While 5G attracts most attention, operators had been making decisions on how to retire legacy 2G and 3G networks to free up spectrum for LTE networks and support higher capacity. Unlike earlier technology migrations where the path was clear, operators have to make tough decisions on which network to turn off first: 2G or 3G. In this, we find that operators are highly pragmatic focusing on revenue and service maximization. Understanding the practical implications sheds light on how the future could unfold.

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State of the Telco Industry: MWC2019 Perspectives

MWC 2019 Intelligent Connectivity

This year I’ll opt to write a few quick thoughts on the state of the telco industry instead of the annual report that follows MWC. Time is tight, so let’s get straight to the main points.

Foldable Phones

Foldable phones were the main highlight of MWC2019. Both Samsung and Huawei launched models featuring foldable screens. At prices in the range of €2,300, these phones will be the ultimate status symbols. You can’t expect high volumes with this kind of pricing. If the industry is looking for a device that will make the business case for 5G, I don’t think it will be these phones.

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Edge Computing Economics: Is Latency Worth the Price?

Edge Computing 2The benefits of edge computing, low latency and backhaul efficiency are well understood. However, there is a cost to realize these benefits through small data centers. Hyperscale data centers are the backbone of the cloud. The cost structure and operation of these data centers is well understood. On the other hand, different requirements govern the edge cloud leading to different economics. Understanding these economics and monetization potential is fundamental to evaluating the business case for edge computing. The question becomes: is latency worth the cost of edge computing? Continue reading →