Proponents of millimeter wave (mmWave) access technology loud its success by citing the number of completed auctions. Looking at the quality of these auctions reveals a contrasting conclusion: mmWave is struggling to gain the interest of mobile network operators. Except the United States and Australia, the demand for mmWave licenses is low; and operators are not willing to pay much beyond the reserve price. In one occasion – in Hong Kong – a free license was declined. A few regulators have delayed or scrapped auctioning mmWave. For detailed information download our report on the State of Millimeter Wave:
Deployment Shortfall
The earliest markets to authorize mmWave deployments for mobile access are the United States, Japan and Korea. Korea required MNOs to deploy 15,000 28 GHz base stations by end of 2021. But an audit found that MNOs deployed only a fraction of the target. Hence, the regulator revoked the licenses.
In the United States, Verizon leads 28 GHz mmWave deployments base stations with 35,000 sites on air by March 2022. We attribute Verizon’s adoption of mmWave to their premium service provider market positioning, while being short on midband spectrum to compete with T-Mobile’s 2.5 GHz until securing C-band spectrum in the 2021 auction. In the current economic environment which is forcing MNOs to cut capex, mmWave deployments could stall.
Perhaps the biggest failure in mmWave is that of Starry. The company executed on a SPAC in March 2022 with a transaction valued at $1.76 B [Link]. by November 2022, it was on the verge of bankruptcy, laying off staff and seeking additional funding. In addition to providing services, Starry makes its own mmWave solutions based on Wi-Fi technology.
Enterprise Private Networks
Several regulators decided to make parts of mmWave frequencies available for enterprise private wireless networks. These include China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, and the UK among others. The enterprise market is at a relatively early stage of development. The focus is on testing the technology, particularly in advanced manufacturing that require multiple Gbps throughput rate.
Concluding Thoughts
mmWave is in a similar situation today to that of mid-band spectrum (e.g. C-band/3.5 GHz) in the 2000’s prior to the advent of massive MIMO technology as implemented in 5GNR. Many MNOs are indifferent to mmWave. Perhaps with additional technical advances, mmWave will get better commercial traction. This makes is a candidate for future “6G” deployments. mmWave is already integrated into many handsets, such as iPhone 14 and Galaxy S22,But it is not mainstream yet. That could change in the future considering it is a candidate for 3 use cases: mobile, fixed wireless access, and enterprise networks. In the meantime, I think mmWave should be considered for a fourth use case: direct satellite-to-handset communications as I outlined in a previous post [here].
Worth noting that mmWave bands are only built into US-sold iPhones. iPhones sold elsewhere don’t support any mmWave bands. This may also apply to Samsung handsets.