Recent announcements from both the ITU-R and 3GPP provide valuable insights into the roadmap for the emergence of 6G technology. Based on historical norms, I anticipate meaningful commercial 6G deployments to commence around 2031.
In our Xona Partners Insight Note: Mapping the Road Towards 6G, which you can download below, we delve into the pivotal factors shaping the definition of 6G. Here, in this blog post, I wanted to share a few complementary notes to the Insight Note.
Point 1: The leading mobile network operators have only recently finished deploying 5G radios and have no appetite for new access technologies. Many of these operators have not deployed standalone 5G cores, which will be the next objective. [See here on core migration]
Point 2: 5G did not provide a lift in revenue and profits as it was hoped for. There are nuances to this, for sure. However, operators will need to pay for the cost of 5G first (spectrum acquisitions, infrastructure upgrades). This is evident by the reduction in capex by operators as they seek to reduce debt.
Point 3: There’s much more to follow in the 5G roadmap, including the upcoming 3GPP Releases 18, 19, and 20 (5G-Advanced). From a practical standpoint, deploying a standalone core and launching services enabled by it would be a preferred path to test new revenue generating strategies.