Dispelling The Sustainability Myth in Telecom Networks: What’s Worth The Investment?

Dispelling The Sustainability Myth in Telecom Networks.

I wrote this Insight Note for two reasons: 1. The rise in cost of energy threatens to stress the financial performance of service providers; and 2. I want to provide context for potential investments in power saving technologies to help investors decide which would be worthwhile. Energy consumption in telecom networks has become a confounding issue because of misleading statements by different industry lobbying groups. Operators have also been silent, preferring to speak in terms of meaningless ratios. Thus, I aim to share my view on the depth of the energy challenge that 5G raises and provide guidelines as to which areas one needs to consider investing in.

This paper is only a part of much larger work we did to evaluate new solutions – both hardware and software – to manage and/or reduce the power consumption of 5G networks. This is of interest to certain types of corporate and financial investors, especially those looking to push the technology envelop. The Insight Note does not expand on the technical aspects: only so much can fit into a 4-page paper! But I hope I succeeded in my main objective which is to share some important facts to have the right context, and to share the framework to simplify how one needs to address the energy challenge.

Continue reading →

Apple-Globalstar: Just an SOS or Birth of the “Global” Telco?

Apple launched the iPhone 14 with Emergency SOS via satellite service allowing a user to send and receive text messages over Globalstar satellites (here). The direct satellite-to-handset service operates over Globalstar Gen2 satellites which will start to expire by 2025. Apple will incur costs in excess of $400 million to fund Globalstar launch 17 new satellites by the end of 2025 and deploy new ground stations to support the service. Apple will reserve 85% of capacity on the Globalstar network and receive consent rights over the spectrum. Globalstar will abandon their voice services to make capacity available.

How it Works

This direct satellite-to-handset service is unique as it makes use of existing satellites designed as relays for WCDMA. The media reports that the service is based on Band 53 between 2483.5 – 2495 MHz (S-band). This is half-truth: it is only for the user downlink path which what this spectrum is licensed for. The user uplink is still served over the L-band. This has implications on system capacity and performance, aside from what technologies the phone supports.

Continue reading →

T-Mobile + SpaceX Direct Satellite-to-Handset Service: Lots of Hype and Little Reality

direct satellite-to-handset communication

This will start as a technical post, but I will relate it to practical and commercial conclusions at the end.

T-Mobile and Space-X announced a partnership to provide direct satellite-to-handset service using T-Mobile PCS frequency band. While this is new to Space-X, there are other players in the industry working on the same objective, primarily AST SpaceMobile and Lynk. [Apple is rumored to launch this type of service with Globalstar.]

The service will enable users outside T-Mobile’s terrestrial network coverage to connect to a Starlink satellite (Gen 2) to send and receive text messages and voice calls (future phase).

Here, I dive deeper into the technical details of this type of system to highlight some practical and commercial conclusions that apply to all such direct satellite-to-handset networks.

Continue reading →

A Report on Power Consumption in Mobile Networks

Power Consumption in Mobile Networks - Energy Crisis

There are many misconceptions about power consumption in mobile networks. Some of the root cause of these misconceptions come from lobbying groups working on behalf of the wireless industry. Several publications by such organizations have purposely confounded the topic. Mobile network operators for their part have been largely silent.

As an energy crisis grips the globe, it is important to assess the impact of rising fuel and electricity prices on telecom service providers and data center operators. We provided this view on the power consumption in mobile networks in part to enable interested parties assess such impact. 

Rising electricity prices - Power Consumption in Mobile Network

The report is based on data we collected during the past few months. Considering that there are variances in mobile networks in terms of architectures, designs and deployment models, one need to bear in mind such variability. What is important to note is that the conclusions we present are factual and conclusive despite such variability in parameters. We continue to update this report with new data periodically. We have worked on similar analysis in relation with the impact of data centers, please click here to reach out.

What Spectrum for Enterprise Private Networks Tell Us About Risks and Opportunities

Countries are in process of allocating spectrum for private wireless network, but are they assigning the right spectrum? Most of the allocated spectrum falls in the mid-bands, primarily 3.x GHz, or the millimeter-wave bands (24, 26, 27, 28 and 38 GHz). A close look shows the fragmentation in allocated spectrum which could not be good for economies of scale. While in the past access to spectrum has been a barrier for private wireless networks, the current fragmented environment raises new challenges especially as the prospects for coordination among different countries is practically nil. But in all of this, there’s a silver lining for those who are persistent.

Countries with planned and implemented local licensing framework for enterprise private wireless networks. [Source: Xona Partners]
Countries with planned and implemented local licensing framework for enterprise private wireless networks. [Source: Xona Partners]
Continue reading →

Observations on Canada’s 3800 MHz Frequency Spectrum Auction

Update – April 2023. We published a report on the expected valuation of the Canadian 3800 MHz auction. For additional information see here.

3.5 GHz 5G Spectrum Valuation Canada 3800 MHz

Canada will auction its 3800 MHz C-band spectrum beginning on October 24, 2023 [see here]. This is very late!

The auction includes 250 MHz between 3650 and 3900 MHz. Together with the 3450 – 3650 MHz band, service providers could operate 5G in a maximum of 100 MHz cap in a 450 MHz range between 3450 and 3900 MHz.

Fragmented Spectrum Increases Deployment Costs

Canada had opened the 3450-3650 MHz band to 5G service at the conclusion of last year’s auction. Operators could combine their assets in the 3500 MHz and 3800 MHz spectrum bands through a license transfer process at the end of the 3800 MHz auction.

Continue reading →

Wi-Fi vs. 5G In Enterprise Private Networks

Wi-Fi vs. 5G

Wi-Fi 6 (802.11ax) brings a number of features that elevate the performance of Wi-Fi significantly from that of older generations. These features solve many of the challenges that limit the performance of current Wi-Fi networks, and raise the performance to a level close to that of cellular networks based on 4G and 5G technologies. Since 5G private networks aim to provide superior performance over current Wi-Fi deployments, one has to question how sustainable this advantage is. The 5G media hype often makes one forget that other access technologies even exist. As a result, there’s a black hole in the knowledge of investors in access network technologies, and especially Wi-Fi vs. 5G.

Continue reading →

How Much Mobile Operators Care about Energy Consumption?

Energy consumption

There was a noticeable increase in interest over the past several months in “Green 5G”. Energy consumption was top-of-mind for CTOs at MWC22. Different industry lobbyists released white-papers praising the energy efficiency of 5G [a few of which are misleading and even utterly wrong]. The jump in energy prices, especially in Europe, became a concern for their inflationary impact on telecom operators. Even US operators were not immune: Verizon cited their concerns on rising labor and energy costs in their most recent earnings call. Some, as in the recent Brooklyn 6G Summit, started to position 6G as the technology for sustainable networks which will compensate for the failures of 5G!

So, what to make of all this talk about sustainable telecom networks? What are the real issues related to power consumption? How important is this issue to the industry? What is the impact of the cost of energy on telecom operators? And, what lessons to learn from this, especially from a technology development perspective?

Continue reading →

Enterprise Private Wireless Networks: 4G or 5G?

Enterprise Private Wireless Networks: 4G or 5G?

In almost every enterprise private wireless network (PWN) engagement, I come across the question of what technology to select: 4G/LTE or 5G1? Deciding between LTE and 5G is often complex and needs careful analysis. Here, I outline the top 5 factors to help in the decision making process.

1. Performance & Features

The PWN has to meet the use case SLA requirements for throughput, latency, jitter, power consumption, operating mode (e.g. mobile, fixed), reliability, and availability among other requirements. Identifying the application QoS metrics and mapping that to the technology performance parameters is one of the first steps. For many in the enterprise segment, this is a challenging step because they lack of the technical understanding.

Continue reading →

FCC Auction 110 3.45 GHz Summary

Auction 110 [see here] for 100 MHz in 3.45 – 3.55 GHz scored $22.5 Billion in gross proceeds for an average of $0.736/MHz-PoP. AT&T, Dish and T-Mobile won 83% of the MHz-PoP. For details, download the full summary here:

Continue reading →

5G vs. Radio Altimeters: A Storm in a Tea Cup?

The row between the wireless and aviation industries on potential interference between 5G and aircraft radio altimeters is sounding like a storm in a tea cup! The genesis of this dispute is a report in October 2020 by the Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics (RTCA) citing potential interference to altimeters operating in the 4.2 – 4.4 GHz band from 5G base stations operating in mid-band spectrum, particularly 3.7 – 3.98 GHz [see here]. This alerted telecom regulators to a possible interference problem that may threaten aircraft safety leading some regulators to impose restrictions on 5G radio emissions and deployments.

Background on Radio Altimeters

Most civil and military aircraft use radio altimeters to measure an aircraft’s altitude above ground and its clearance over terrain. Altimeters feed information to other aircraft systems such as landing and collision avoidance systems.

Altimeters RF performance is designed to comply with ITU-R M.2059 specification. There are classes of altimeters featuring different RF characteristics which makes some more susceptible to interference than others. The aviation industry claims that emissions from 5G could lead to altimeter receiver overload. How much overload will depend on a number of factors, which in addition to the type of altimeter include the operating parameters and geometry of the aircraft and the cell site antennas.

Continue reading →

Is Direct Satellite-to-Device the Largest Opportunity in Satcom’s History?

The direct satellite-to-device (DS2D) market is expected to reach $35 billion by 2030, and counting 400 million average monthly subscriptions driven by 5G technology (according to NSR). This is about $7/month. This highlights a very sensitive business case: constellations cost billions to deploy and operate; they need a refresh every 5-10 years. With much of the world’s unconnected in developing markets where ARPU is $2 or less, controlling constellation costs becomes critical to the success of direct satellite-to-device ventures.

Direct satellite-to-device connectivity was be the topic of our 3rd workshop in the Space Intersects Internet series on November 18, 2021. You can watch the recorded event at this link: https://bit.ly/3q6eyRP. To download a summary transcript, enter your email below:

Continue reading →

Taking the Quantum Leap: How quantum technology is set to transform communication networks

Key Takeaways

  • Quantum computing decimates RSA cryptography which underpins most of our digital platforms: you can’t have a happy quantum computing world without first protecting all of the critical infrastructures against quantum-enabled attacks.
  • The quantum threat development is not gradual and can come suddenly to break everything. This can come fast to threaten our networks and the Internet.
  • Our digital infrastructure is not ready for quantum-enabled attacks. Service providers, data center operators and others need to protect their networks for from such attacks. The planning cycle is long, so service providers need to start planning back from the date they are required to implement quantum technologies, for instance 2031 in the case of Germany.
  • The planning cycle to incorporate quantum cryptography is long and has several challenges, such as availability of standard, interoperability and validation; in addition to a complex supply chain.
  • NIST, ETSI and other organizations are in process of developing new algorithms and standards which are coming out imminently: NIST will announce the finalists in a few months, and the final standard will be out in 2024.
  • North America, Europe and China are heavily investing in quantum cryptography and post-quantum cryptography.
Continue reading →

How Telcos Outsourced Their Brains!

edge computing: telco vs. cloud players

The decision by AT&T to host its network cloud, including the core network, on Microsoft Azure Cloud is the single most important milestone in the telecom industry over the past few years. It’s an experiment and a leap of faith that is set to have major ripples on the market. The core network is the essence of 5G that will differentiate among mobile network operators. Cloud providers are intent on playing a key role in the re-architecture of the mobile network to provide edge computing services. In this arrangement, AT&T appears to have ceded its nervous system and outsourced its brains. So, what are the prospects, and could they be so negative?

Background

Microsoft’s Azure Cloud will host AT&T’s network cloud deployment and development starting with the core network functions (see the June 2021 announcement here or here). In this process which is expected to last 3 years, Microsoft is acquiring AT&T’s network cloud technology and the design, development and support engineers who maintain and operate the network. They will become part of Azure for Operators service which Microsoft will offer to other network operators.

Continue reading →